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The USA needs to beat Japan when they play in Sacramento on Saturday, and claim a bonus point and have a superior points difference to the other sides to reach the PNC semifinals. Any other result will see them play the bottom-placed team in Pool A for a 5th-placed game.
It's high-stakes, as the bottom team in the Pacific Nations Cup 2025 (from the USA, Canada, Tonga, and Samoa) won't directly qualify for the Men’s Rugby World Cup in 2027.
The US side was poor against Canada, and they don't have a good Test record in recent times. They have lost their last three Test matches at home (Canada, Spain, and England), and won only two of their last eight men’s Tests on home turf - it does not make for good reading for the time trying to reach RWC 2027.
On the flip side, the Brave Blossoms have beaten the USA in eight of their last nine meetings - the last time the USA beat Japan was a decade ago in the PNC. Japan beat Canada 57-15 after a tight opening half and were too quick and strong for a side that defeated the US in the opening round of the PNC 2025.
The head-to-head overall reads sees the USA lead 13-11 with one draw, which shows how the two national teams have changed over the past decade and more.
Jason Damm captains the home side from the second row, and leads a team which has seven changes in the starting line-up from the side that lost to Canada. Ruben de Haas has recovered from injury to start at scrum-half with Christopher Hilsenbeck at fly-half.
Props Ezekiel Lindenmuth and Kaleb Geiger start alongside hooker Kapeli Pifeleti, with Paddy Ryan and Luke Carty both with the side for the first time in 2025.
USA Eagles Head Coach Scott Lawrence said, “The return has reminded us of the roots of home. Our national mammal is the Buffalo; the Buffalo charges into storms that roll across our great nation. Energy and perseverance to charge are a choice, we want to show both to our home fans.”
For the Brave Blossoms, Kippei Ishida, who scored twice in the win over Canada, also put up an impressive 148 metres in Tests in 2024, the most of any player for Japan. Seungsin Lee at fly-half has had direct involvement in eight tries across his last seven Tests and scored 93 points at the same time.
Warner Dearns was outstanding in his first role as the Brave Blossoms captain, and so were Amato Fakatava and Ben Gunter. The pack as a whole had a good outing against Canada. Japan won all 11 scrums on their feed and every restart. They lost two of their 14 throws into the lineout (86%).
Both uncapped flanker Akito Okui (Toyota Verblitz) and winger Haruto Kida (Kubota Spears Funabashi Tokyo-Bay) are among the reserves and could earn their first caps.
Where Eddie Jones would need to see continued improvement is their discipline - they conceded 12 penalties in addition to the first-half yellow card, and it's been an issue across the past 12-18 months.
The Brave Blossoms have only won six of the 14 tests since the RWC 2023, and they will see the PNC as an opportunity to improve that. As an added insight for the Japanese, their new assistant coach, Gary Gold, was the head coach with the USA Eagles until December 2022, after the Eagles failed to qualify for the Rugby World Cup 2023.
Craig Evans (Wales) is in charge of this fixture.
