PNC 2025: 5 Key Stats From Round 4
Although a 5th place play-off may sound fairly innocuous, USA vs Samoa was undoubtedly the tensest games of the weekend. Why? Because an automatic spot at the World Cup was at stake. The nerves were showcased in the closeness of the stats: 50:50 territory, 48:52 possession, 13:14 on lineouts, 90:89 on ball carries, 9:7 on 22m entries, 113:119 in tackles and 12:10 on penalties conceded.
Home
Away
Nanai M. (61')
Tries
Fricker T. (22'), Carty L. (66'), Damm J. (76'), Geiger K. (80')
Lealiifano C. (62')
Conversions
Wilson M. (68', 79', 81')
Esekia Iona R. (4', 33')
Penalties
Carty L. (36')
Knock Out Footie
Although a 5th place play-off may sound fairly innocuous, USA vs Samoa was undoubtedly the tensest games of the weekend. Why? Because an automatic spot at the World Cup was at stake. The nerves were showcased in the closeness of the stats: 50:50 territory, 48:52 possession, 13:14 on lineouts, 90:89 on ball carries, 9:7 on 22m entries, 113:119 in tackles and 12:10 on penalties conceded.
Possession
TURNOVERS WON
TACKLES
In the end it was the more conservative team who won: USA made just 3 line breaks in the game but had a 22m conversion rate of 4.14. They also out kicked Samoa 30:17, with early substitute fly-half Luke Carey providing 7 of those as well as a penalty goal and a try.
Samoan Strife
A couple of weeks into July, Samoa were ranked above Wales in the world rankings, meaning they were competing for a 2nd seed spot in a World Cup pool. Now they face a challenging double header against a talented Chilean side to avoid dropping into the Repechage.
Last Match Form
The truth is player availability continues to be Samoa's biggest hurdle. They managed to call on a handful of European based players this campaign, but none for every single game. Their Moana Pasifika contingent are mostly playing NPC in New Zeeland, which does not finish in time for the Chile play-off.
Between their 3rd place finish in last year's PNC and the start of this year's campaign, they played just one game. They will not play a home game in Samoa this year, despite having had 3 opportunities to do so. It’s all thanks to financial issues and governance problems off the field. To think they beat Italy last year and probably should have gotten out of their pool at RWC2023... it's a heartbreaking story.
Fiji Bring The Circus
You rarely see such a mismatch, player for player, in a semi-final of a competition as we saw between Fiji and Canada. The two are ranked 9th and 24th in the world respectively and it showed; athletically, the Fijians were in another galaxy compared to the Canadians and that's before we even get to their ball skills and vision.
The stats are brutal: Fiji got 9 tries from 12 line breaks, 58 (fifty-eight) defenders beaten and 589 post contact meters from 131 carries. This was nowhere near Fiji's first choice team either, with almost every position having a better player resting at home. Even so, they were already whipping out the circus tricks on their way to a 43-3 half time lead.
Tonga’s Progress
Whilst it may seem disingenuous to use a 60-point loss as evidence of progress, one has to remember Tonga finished 5th in the PNC last year and lost to Romania in their end of year tour - an opponent they beat comfortably at the World Cup in 2023 12 months earlier. This season they have had better access to players with more experience at the top level and had better continuity in their selections.
The score was 19-21 at half time and was only 41-24 with 9 minutes to go before Japan turned on the afterburners late on - again evidence to suggest Eddie Jones has changed his approach to conditioning - which we can put down to the game being played at altitude. They actually missed fewer tackles than Japan whilst making more post contact meters. Tonga will back themselves to secure 3rd place vs Canada next week.
No Surprises
So for the 2nd season in a row we have a Fiji vs Japan final, which is a surprise to no-one. Fiji are a legitimate top 10 side whilst the investment and opportunity Japan has had in the last 10 years should see them head and shoulders clear of the rest.
So far the two top sides have scored 124 and 166 points in the first 3 games respectively, with both hitting 60 in the semi finals. Last year was a walk over for Fiji, but Japan do look to have improved this season with a much more robust scrum, smarter line out and fitness more appropriate for test rugby. Fingers crossed for a competitive game!