Wales Achieve Bare Minimum: Cue The Celebrations
As the flags were raised to signal that Jarrod Evans’ overtime penalty had passed successfully between the uprights and that Wales had indeed defeated Japan right at the very death, the Welsh players on the Principality pitch celebrated with Jubilation. For many, this was their first ever win in Cardiff and only their 2nd or 3rd test victory over their entire careers. For some, this was only their 2nd win at club or test level for 2 years.
Wales 2
Japan
Edwards (5'), Rees-Zammit (50'), Tompkins (62')
Tries
Ishida (14'), Makisi (59')
Edwards (6', 50', 63')
Conversions
Lee (15', 60')
Evans (82')
Penalties
Lee (47', 55', 65')
As the flags were raised to signal that Jarrod Evans’ overtime penalty had passed successfully between the uprights and that Wales had indeed defeated Japan right at the very death, the Welsh players on the Principality pitch celebrated with Jubilation. For many, this was their first ever win in Cardiff and only their 2nd or 3rd test victory over their entire careers. For some, this was only their 2nd win at club or test level for 2 years.
For others, it was likely less about getting a win and more about relief – they could sleep soundly in their beds tonight unburdened by what would have been another historic defeat on their record.
These are players who grew up dreaming of playing for Wales, who want nothing more than to play international rugby in front of a packed stadium in Cardiff. For the last few seasons, their dream has been a nightmare, and a home loss to Japan would have been the most traumatising yet. Instead, one week of contented sleep. They are well within their rights to celebrate.
Welsh rugby fans, however, will not sleep so easy. This is a game that should never have been in doubt. Of all of Wales’ fixtures over the next 12 months, this was the one they could not lose - it was non-negotiable. So, whilst the victory was secured, prolonging Wales’ stay in the top 12 for at least another week, the performance on the pitch represented a continuation of a decline that has at times resembled a free-fall.
As Bad As It Ever Was
The final moment itself was reminiscent of Cardiff vs Leinster a few seasons ago where Jarrod Evans was again the hero, kicking an overtime penalty for a famous win. That day, he was also mobbed by teammates as the ball sailed between the posts. The difference is that on that occasion it was a giant killing, a club side earning a major upset against a juggernaut opposition. In this game, that was not the case. Here, a Welsh victory was the bare minimum – a standard they came as close as possible to not hitting.
Watching Wales being pinned on their own half by a 13-man Japan was harrowing. This was an opposition that, just a few weeks ago, were ripped apart in the PNC final by a Fijian team missing their biggest stars.
By contrast, Wales made them look like the Springboks, such was the ease with which they controlled momentum and territory despite being 2 players down. The hosts, on the other hand, played like headless chickens, travelling in every direction except forwards. This is despite welcoming back the likes of Tomos Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, Dafydd Jenkins and Adam Beard who all missed the tour to Japan earlier this year. Those latter two were shown the levels by the incredible Warner Dearns.
Last Match Form
Wales managed just 32% possession at home against a Japanese team which played 12 minutes a man down and 6 minutes 2 men down. A dreadful statistic. The reason for this? Partially the ineptitude under the high ball, most of which has been blamed on Blair Murray who once again struggled badly, but most of the team were just as poor - high balls were ricocheting off Josh Adams so hard the other players should have been issued with hard hats and safety goggles.
The lineout once again had its fair share of embarrassing malfunctions, but most concerning was the lack of smart territory management and identification of space by the play makers. Rather than be cut apart, Japan were able to comfortably drift from side to side, soaking up Welsh pressure 50 metres away from their try line until the inevitable mistake was made.
This is troubling because, on paper, the Dan Edwards/Ben Thomas 9/10/12 combination should work well. Edwards is well used to playing with a 2nd playmaker, leaning heavily as he does on Jack Walsh back at the Ospreys.
Ben Thomas, meanwhile, is the keystone the entire rest of the backline is built around. And yet, rather than being a case of ‘two brains are better than one’ it looks to be more like a case of ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’.
The only man benefiting from it so far is Edwards himself; with Tomos Williams capable of organising everything in front of him and Ben Thomas organising everything behind him, Edwards is given free rein to roam the pitch and do as he pleases, using his vision, deceptive pace and neat footwork to build up a tidy individual highlights reel.
For the entire rest of the team though, it isn’t working. Outside centre Max Llewellyn was so uninvolved in the game he probably had to google what happened in the changing room afterwards whilst Josh Adams got so frustrated he kicked a ball out on the full and then got himself sent off for the kind of ridiculous action he is starting to build up a track record of making.
Japanese Regrets
The truth is that Wales did not win this game, Japan lost it. Japan should be full of regrets; from giving away 3 yellow cards for high tackles, to Lee’s 2 missed penalty kicks, to Saito’s hopeless missed tackle on Dan Edwards. They had the better of almost every stat: 22m entries, line breaks, possession, kicks, metres, turnovers won, offloads, lineout success, passes, carries, penalties conceded territory.
CARRIES
CLEAN BREAK
Possession
TURNOVER WON
When considering those numbers, 2 tries is a terrible return. Despite their undeniably stunning handling skills and flawless set piece, they only evaded 10% of attempted Welsh tackles and had a 22m conversion rate of just 1.5. They somehow managed the game expertly whilst down to 13 but allowed Wales to score 3 tries from 6 22m entries whilst back to 15.
After the game, Eddie Jones made no secret of his irritation that his Brave Blossom has blown a massive chance to steal away that top 12 spot. At least they will get another shot at it against Georgia next week.
What Next, Wales?
For Wales, it is worth lingering on what they have just avoided: a defeat here, couple with the defeat to Fiji last year, would have shown that Wales would not make the final of the Pacific Nations Cup. i.e They are closer in levels of performance to the likes of Tonga and USA than they are Scotland and Italy, let alone the Springbok and All Black teams that are coming to Cardiff next.
Were some to get their wishes and the Six Nations were to bring in relegation to Rugby Europe, would Wales definitely stay up? The real answer is it doesn’t matter because the financial catastrophe of not playing in the Six Nations would bankrupt the WRU anyway (if they’re not already bankrupt, it depends who you ask) but aside from that you’re brave to back them against Georgia away.
Perhaps nothing summed up the state of Welsh rugby more than the fact the man taking the match-winning kick and one of the first men to congratulate him – replacement prop Rhys Carre – thought they were ineligible for Wales less than a year ago thanks to the mysterious and mythical 25-cap rule. And yet, there they were, arms raised celebrating Wales’ first home win in 10 games.
When will the next one come along? Who knows. Perhaps the WRU should get on the phone to Tonga and USA after all…