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‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’
The phrase, made famous by Samuel Langhorne Clemens, the American writer, humorist, and essayist, better known by his pen name Mark Twain, can easily be applied to rugby.
However, while it can’t always be a facticity in the game, it is certainly a good indication of ‘trends’ and ‘tactics’ by teams.
Ahead of the historic four-Test Greatest Rivalry series between South Africa and New Zealand, it is a meritorious exercise to look at recent trends by the two giants of the game.
While there are so many external factors, such as unequal opponents and contrasting conditions, there are two clear ‘trends’ to emerge from the Springboks’ and All Blacks’ campaigns this year.
New Zealand have reverted to their preferred crusade of an expansive ball-in-hand approach.
The numbers in their kicking game dropped, while passes and offloads skyrocketed in their three Nations Championship matches and the 38-21 win in their opening tour match in Cape Town.
Their passing game is slick and their offloads effective.
Not even the Stormers’ suffocating defence managed to overpower them, but did, for a large part of last Friday’s tour opener, keep the South African franchise in the hunt.
In stark contrast, the Springboks, in their three Nations Championship matches and last Saturday’s arm-wrestle in Argentina (a 17-10 win), made liberal use of contestable kicks, which brought some success, but also showed how much work there is still to do.
The Boks’ tackle success rate against Los Pumas (92) and Wales (93) is a pointer to the standard they will have to be at against the All Blacks.
However, some of those wayward kicks and defensive lapses against Scotland and England are again an indication of how much improvement is required.
The high number of kicks, 121 across four games, seems to be a clear indication of a change of tactics.
To their defence. It did not help the Boks that coach Rassie Erasmus, as part of his stated rotation policy and building squad depth, made large-scale changes every week.
He may well have kept some of his powder dry and still have a trick or two up his sleeve.
The All Blacks were held in check for an hour by a very willing Stormers team, before three quick tries took them clear of their hosts.
In the end they had 141 carries, with 173 passes and 12 offloads.
That is a clear indication that they are avoiding contact and speeding up the game, trying to run the opposition off their feet.
They kicked just 15 times in the match, making the opposition work for their opportunities.
With a tackle success rate of just 86 percent, that is perhaps one of their biggest work-ons, along with their scrums.
In their last Nations Championship outing, the Kiwis were also far too slick for an ageing Ireland team, who seems to be caught between two styles – their traditional ball-in-hand phase play and a choking defensive system.
New Zealand’s 200 carries produced 255 passes and 12 offloads, another indication that they are avoiding getting into an arm-wrestle with the opposition.
They did kick 24 times, but their tackle success rate was an impressive 92 percent.
Ireland trailed the All Blacks in all aspects of the game, making the final score a true reflection of the contest.
The encounter with the Azzurri is difficult to assess, as the Italian visitors failed to fire in any of their matches and looked to be a pale shadow of the improvement they showed in the Six Nations.
With 187 carries, double that of Italia, they made 313 passes (almost three times that of the Azzurri) and 12 offloads (double that of the opposition.
Again, the All Blacks kicked just 16 times, and their tackle success rate was also at an acceptable 90 percent.
Perhaps their most challenging game was the Nations Championship opener against France,
The teams were pretty even, and the score is perhaps the best reflection of just how tight it was.
Both teams had 146 carries, with the All Blacks making 220 passes and 17 offloads, while France had 186 passes and 21 offloads.
New Zealand kicked 17 times and France 21 times.
Both teams had a tackle success rate of 87 percent.
This game, with nine players returning from injury, was perhaps the best indication of what direction the Boks may be heading into – lots of contestable kicks and brutal defence.
Yes, South Africa had 148 carries to Argentina’s 129, with 147 passes (to 189) and just six offloads (to 12).
The kick stats in a windy Buenos Aires is another pointer to perhaps a more pragmatic approach, or World Cup play-off rugby as coach Rassie Erasmus likes to call it.
The Boks kicked 38 times (to the Pumas’ 43), and their tackle success rate was an impressive 92 percent, keeping their opponent to just one try.
Argentina may not be as clinical as New Zealand, but their high passing and offload counts gave the Boks a preview of what they could face against the All Blacks.
The game that I get least excited about, as Wales is a declining team with a new coach.
They were no match for a much-changed Bok team, and South Africa’s carry-to-pass rate remains pretty close to even (116 to 128), with again just six offloads.
There were 32 kicks and a tackle success rate of 93 percent.
Scotland was the one team that tested the Boks’ defence with their passing and offload game.
The Boks had 102 carries and 85 passes, using their brutal forwards, while Scotland had 163 carries, 234 passes and 16 offloads, the most of any team this past July.
There were 21 kicks by South Africa, but their tackle success rate was at a worrying 81 percent.
The many changes, from week to week, can certainly be seen as a valid reason, but nobody can criticise Erasmus for his ‘innovative’ selections while the team is still winning.
Only Pieter-Steph du Toit (started as captain in all three), Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jasper Wiese, and Malcolm Marx featured in all the July Tests.
High kicking count and low passing in this match again indicate a shift in focus, or was it all smoke and mirrors?
Both teams had 117 carries, but the Boks had just 127 passes and four offloads, to England’s 140 and two.
Again, the contestable kicking game was front and centre, with 30 Springbok kicks to 25 from England.
The Boks’ tackle success rate (86 percent) was also a concern in this match, but they still won comfortably.
@JanDKrugby
@rugby365com
This article was originally published by rugby365.com.
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