Wales
New Zealand
Wales face unbeaten New Zealand at Principality Stadium on Saturday 14 November, with Beauden Barrett captaining the All Blacks and Taine Basham returning to the Welsh starting side. Cardiff will need more than a fast start to unsettle the visitors.
Kick-off is 14:10 GMT. Wales enter Round 5 of the Nations Championship after beating Japan 28–21, while New Zealand maintained their perfect competition record with a 43–21 victory over Scotland. The challenge for the hosts is to convert last weekend’s encouragement into accuracy that lasts for the full match.
Photo: Louis Rees-Zammit tackles Japan’s Chisu Lee in Cardiff on 7 November. Jan Kruger – Nations Championship/Nations Championship via Getty Images.
The announced teams
Steve Tandy has made four changes. Basham starts at No 8, James Botham joins him and Jac Morgan in the back row, Adam Beard returns at lock and Gabriel Hamer-Webb comes onto the wing. Dewi Lake captains Wales, with Tomos Williams and Sam Costelow at half-back and Louis Rees-Zammit and Blair Murray completing the back three.
Barrett leads New Zealand from full-back in his 149th Test. Richie Mo’unga and Cortez Ratima are the half-backs, while Anton Segner and Fehi Fineanganofo make their first Test starts. Will Jordan is unavailable with a hamstring injury. The visitors have changed eight starters from the side that beat Scotland.
Wales need possession they can use
The Welsh lineout must provide a dependable platform. A penalty that earns territory means little if the next possession disappears, particularly against a side capable of turning a loose ball into an attack before the defence has reset. Lake and the pack need to give Williams options beyond clearing under pressure.
Rees-Zammit provides a genuine attacking threat, but Wales should be selective about how they reach him. A well-supported carry followed by quick possession can create a better opportunity than a hopeful pass towards the touchline. The back three also need a connected chase when Costelow or Williams kick. Distance alone will not make a kick effective against Barrett’s reading of the game.
New Zealand’s combinations under examination
Rotation gives Wales something to test, particularly around the first few attacking phases. The hosts should look to make New Zealand’s new combinations communicate, change direction and defend consecutive possessions. That requires patience: forcing an offload simply to keep the tempo high can hand the visitors the broken play they want.
For the All Blacks, Mo’unga’s decisions will matter as much as the pace of the attack. He can bring forwards onto the ball, change the kicking picture and connect with Barrett behind the first line. Wales must keep their spacing when that second playmaker appears, rather than being pulled towards the first obvious threat.
Scotland stayed within three points at half-time last weekend but did not score after the interval. Wales need to anticipate a similar rise in pressure. Restarts, exits and the work of the replacements will determine whether the closing stages remain a contest or become a succession of defensive emergencies.
ATR verdict
New Zealand to win clearly. Wales have enough pace to create moments that lift Cardiff, but the upset requires sustained possession, a reliable set piece and disciplined decisions after the opening surge. The All Blacks’ ability to find space once a defence tires makes them strong favourites.