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We are long past the days of European silver wear being the primary target for the vast majority of club sides. Earlier this season, Toulouse’s Thomas Ramos said there were probably fewer than 10 team taking the tournaments seriously.
For some clubs, however, the European cups have the potential to derail what have been successful seasons to date. Far from being a shot a winning something, they could be the cause of them not winning anything. Here are five teams who need to get out of Europe as quickly as they can…
Cardiff are clinging on to United Rugby Championship top 8 for dear life. The capital region have never made the play-offs in the URC era and, after a strong start to the season, are glancing nervously over their shoulders ahead of a tense season run-in.
The Blue & Blacks face back-to-back derbies in the next two rounds – one against the Scarlets, who are out of Europe, and one against the Ospreys who face Ulster away (more on them later). These are fixtures Cardiff have historically struggled in.
Is it worth jeopardising a play-off spot and Champions Cup qualification by going full strength away to Benetton? Just after a trip to South Africa? When the reward for victory is a trip to either Exeter or Munster? Furthermore, the only realistic threat to their top 8 status is Connacht, who will surely win their R16 tie against the Sharks before going on to face (probably) Montpellier. Better to steal a march on their rivals and capitalise on the extra downtime.
This one is controversial, because Ulster have a genuine shot at the Challenge Cup title. Their best team should have the measure of the Ospreys at home, and they have nothing to fear from either Newcastle or La Rochelle in the next round. For a club who haven’t won anything since 2006, this chance at silver wear could be too tempting to pass over.
However, Ulster are well in the hunt for a home semifinal in the URC. They face a brutal yet tantalising season run-in, with home games again Glasgow, Stormers and Leinster all coming up, along with an away game against Muster.
Even before considering the injuries, they have picked up, Ulster simply cannot go full-bore for every game – they need a break somewhere. By getting out of Europe, they buy back a few weeks to rest their squad and plan for those big games to finish off the season. If they can get a home semifinal, they have a fighting chance at the title – it’s a bigger prize.
South African participation in the European Cups is a contentious topic at the best of times. Stormers have probably been the rainbow nation’s best representative in the competition to date, but they are not equipped to be fighting on two fronts. The results may still be coming in the URC, but the performances are really starting to wobble, and the easy games are running out.
Like Ulster, the opportunity is there - Their R16 opposition, Toulon, are having their own crisis currently, having lost five games in a row and back-to-back home games for the first time in two decades. If Stormers do manage to beat them, they host their old rivals the Bulls down in Cape Town before a likely away trip to Leinster in the semifinal.
However, like Ulster, a URC home semifinal could be the difference between them winning the league or not. They too are struggling with squad depth, and the extra cross-hemisphere travel could bring it all crashing down. Better to send the kids to Toulon and prepare for Glasgow at home in the league.
It would be an almighty shock if Leicester beat UBB in the R16. Their path to the final would require them beating (probably) all four of last season’s semi-finalists. Meanwhile, back in the PREM, they are fighting for top spot. The top 4 race in England already looks to be down to five teams, with Tigers 8 points ahead of Bristol with six games to go. Around them, Bath, Northampton and Exter are all in with a good chance of getting to the European semifinals. The extra weeks off for Tigers could be the advantage they need to steal a PREM home tie.
This season, the TOP14 is less a question of ‘who will win’ and more a question of ‘who will lose to Toulouse in the final’. Right now, the champions are 12 points clear with six games to go. Behind them, three teams are tied on 59 points: Pau, UBB & Strade Francais. UBB have the strongest squad outside of Toulouse, and Stade Francais’ strong showing in the Challenge Cup pool stage means they have secured an advantageous route to the final.
By contrast, Pau have made it abundantly clear since day one that they were not trying in the European Cups – the same as every season. Their only win, against the Scarlets, came almost by accident and has set them up for a trip to Italy to face Zebre. Whilst the 2nd placed team in France losing to the bottom side in the URC may sound like an upset, Pau would probably be very happy to pick up a loss here. For them, just getting to the TOP14 final would be a massive achievement.