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As the fight to save the Ospreys, the long term likely victim of the WRUs plan to cut a URC Region, continues to escalate, a new most powerful ally of angry and desperate fans who oppose the plan has emerged: Swansea City Council.

For the last few weeks, council leaders have been forthright and direct in their opposition to the proposed cull and have been the first people to publicly claim the WRU stated to them in a meeting that the Ospreys will indeed be closed down. In a Welsh Rugby world that has been nothing but smoke and mirrors for months (if not years), someone being this openly confrontational is almost refreshing.

In recent days, the council have escalated matters even further by filing a pre-action letter agains the Union with the intent of taking them to court. They allege the WRU’s decision to sell Cardiff to the Osprey’s owners Y11 was a conflict of interests and that the decision to close down the Ospreys without going through a tendering process is anti-competition. However, even if their case is successful in getting to court, there are many reasons why this still may not be enough to save the team.

To show the scale of the challenge, let us walk through the scenario where the Swansea City Council are successful in saving the Ospreys. Let’s say they block Y11 (a private company) from buying Cardiff (an asset it’s current owner, the WRU, wish to sell). Firstly, this would mean the WRU have to find a new owner for Cardiff (there is no guarantee that previous bidders would return) and it would mean that the club would remain in union ownership, which is something the supporters are opposed to. Secondly, there is also no guarantee that Y11 would continue to operate the Ospreys. As owners, they can shut the region down whenever they want to.

But, let’s continue: suppose the council prevent Y11 from buying Cardiff and force Y11 to keep operating the Ospreys for as long as they dictate they have to. That would constitute a local government forcing a private business to spend money on something it doesn’t want to spend money on. The alternative, of course, is that Y11 sell the Ospreys to a different owner. This would be a monumental challenge because, as shown by House of Luxury’s investment into the Scarlets, wealthy benefactors are not minded to buy something that might cease to exist in under a year. Even if their future became secure, attracting a buyer for a club which by then would have gone through a lengthy court case and spent multiple seasons playing out of a semi-pro ground will a skeleton squad… let’s just say we better hope an Ospreys fan wins the lottery.

It seems highly unlikely that the WRU would step in to buy it off them - or if they did, they might well shut the region down themselves immediately (not withstanding the continued conspiracy theories that the WRU still want to cut to 2 regions, one in Cardiff and one in Swansea - which at this point feels contrived, as why would they sell Cardiff to Y11 in the first place if they wanted that? Surely buying the Ospreys, who have little to no assets, from Y11 would be easier? Anyway, this is besides the point…).

So let’s say the council force Y11 to continue operating the Ospreys as a fully professional team in the URC, essentially in perpetuity. They still wouldn’t be safe. The WRU still wish to reduce the number of regions form 4 to 3 and have made it clear that if they cannot achieve that by ‘consensus’ then the 3 licenses would go to tender. So, for the Ospreys to survive, Swansea City Council would have to force Y11 to apply for a license. Even if Y11 genuinely put all of their effort into winning their bid, many believe they would be second favourite to the Scarlets whose infrastructure is currently far stronger than the Ospreys.

However, let’s say that the council force Y11 to keep the Ospreys going, force them to bid for a regional licence, and they win that bid. If that happens, it almost certainly means the Scarlets would shut down. i.e. Swansea City Council would have been directly responsible for professional team in a neighbouring constituency closing. That’s what they call ‘a political storm’ and would draw fierce opposition from the politicians responsible for Llanelli, who have already been outspoken in defence of their region throughout this process. Furthermore, it seems pretty clear that the WRU have already made up their mind that they envisage a future for Welsh rugby where the Ospreys don’t exist, so why would they then change their minds and award them a regional license? (Having said that, U-turns are kind of the WRU’s thing).

It should be noted at this point, that Swansea City Council have said that their preference is for the WRU to abandon it’s proposals to cut a region and to instead maintain the current 4. Whilst that is a stance that is supported by a great many Welsh rugby fans, it would absolutely remarkable if they managed to force it through via a court of law. It is far more likely to be be achieved by forcing the WRU senior leadership to resign and whoever replaces them having a totally different vision for the game in Wales. Again, this is not beyond the realms of possibility, but given that the WRU board unanimously and repeatedly doubles down on its stance that a region must go, it seems unlikely. (Although… U-turns… see previous brackets)

Anyway, let’s say Swansea City Council have taken the WRU to court and won, they have forced Y11 to keep the Ospreys going and either forced them to bid for the WRU’s regional licence which they win or somehow prevented the WRU from cutting a region either via legal means or via forcing the WRU leadership to change their minds. Then what? Are the council really going to then release the 5 million pounds of public money to build a stadium for a business they have just sued?