Advertisement
Three wins from three have given the All Blacks precisely the start they wanted in South Africa. They worked past the Stormers before overwhelming the Sharks and Bulls, but Ellis Park is where the tour changes character. Provincial promise now has to survive the Springboks’ scrum, maul, kicking game and appetite for prolonged physical pressure.
New Zealand arrive with three of their most influential players appearing for the first time on tour. Captain Ardie Savea starts at number eight, Cam Roigard returns at scrum-half and Will Jordan takes the right wing. All three should sharpen the All Blacks, although none has played since the July Tests. Roigard and Jordan have also had calf and back concerns respectively, leaving New Zealand to balance the benefit of fresh legs against the risk of starting slowly at Ellis Park.
Roigard’s speed from the base will be important to Ruben Love. The young fly-half has a backline capable of attacking from almost anywhere, with Jordie Barrett and Quinn Tupaea providing directness in midfield and Josh Moorby, Jordan and Damian McKenzie offering three natural counterattackers. The challenge will be knowing when to use that freedom. Loose exits or ambitious passes inside their own half will give South Africa the field position they thrive on.
The more intriguing selection is in the pack. Josh Lord and Fabian Holland form a mobile locking partnership capable of handling, competing in the air and appearing in wider channels. Neither lacks height, and Holland is hardly a small man, but together they do not provide the proven Test weight of some New Zealand combinations. Against the Springboks, the question will be whether they can anchor the scrum and absorb the maul pressure before their athleticism becomes relevant.
There is no specialist lock among the replacements. Tupou Vaa’i starts at blindside flanker and will shift into the second row if required, a calculated decision that allows New Zealand to retain a 5–3 bench. It also means any early injury at lock would immediately alter the loose-forward plan.
Anton Segner and Peter Lakai have effectively played their way into that plan. Segner’s breakdown work, tackling and clever link play against the Bulls earned him widespread praise, while Lakai’s powerful carrying and ability to find space have been features throughout the provincial programme. Their introduction could increase New Zealand’s pace in the final quarter, but it is a different assignment doing so against a Springbok pack built to grow stronger through its replacements.
Kyle Preston provides the scrum-half cover after Cortez Ratima injured his knee against the Bulls. Anton Lienert-Brown supplies security across the midfield, while Leroy Carter can cover the wing and, if circumstances demand it, scrum-half. That versatility gives Dave Rennie several ways to reorganise his backline, even as the absence of a reserve lock leaves less room for disruption up front.
New Zealand have already experienced altitude at Loftus Versfeld, so Johannesburg should not surprise them. The intensity might. If Lord and Holland secure clean set-piece ball, Roigard can release a backline quick enough to stretch South Africa. If the Springboks slow the breakdown, dominate territory and force Vaa’i into the second row early, the tourists’ carefully balanced bench could become a compromise. The opening exchanges will test New Zealand’s composure; the final quarter will reveal whether their mobility can live with South Africa’s weight.
