South Africa could surrender top spot without New Zealand gaining a single rating point, while France have a direct route to third. World Rugby’s permutations put an extra edge on the international weekend of 13–15 November 2026.
The Springboks have more than France to contend with in Paris. Their place at the top of the World Rugby men’s rankings is also in play: if South Africa fail to win on Friday and New Zealand beat Wales the following day, the All Blacks will finish the weekend above them. A draw would not be enough to protect the champions’ position. These are the possibilities in World Rugby’s pre-weekend briefing, rather than changes that have already happened.
The small gap at the summit makes that scenario particularly awkward for South Africa. They begin on 93.09 rating points, with New Zealand on 92.65. A draw against France would bring the Springboks down to 92.53. New Zealand, meanwhile, cannot add to their total by beating Wales because the gap between those two teams is too large. The All Blacks could therefore move to number one simply by doing their job in Cardiff while France take points off the leaders. The rankings reward the difficulty of the result, not the size of the occasion.
France have a clearer target of their own. Any victory over South Africa would lift Les Bleus from fourth to third, regardless of how Ireland fare against Fiji. That adds another reason for the hosts to value the result in Saint-Denis: this would be a measurable move into the top three as well as a Nations Championship win. There is a downside, too. A defeat by more than 15 points would leave France vulnerable to being overtaken by England if they beat Japan.
England’s ceiling is higher than fourth, although they cannot reach it through their own result alone. World Rugby lists third place as possible if England win and results in Paris and Dublin also go their way. Ireland’s meeting with Fiji is therefore part of the same picture. Ireland cannot improve their 88.70 rating by winning, but a defeat would cost them points and expose their position. For the higher-ranked sides facing a much lower-rated opponent, there can be plenty to lose and no ranking points to gain.
Scotland and Australia bring a different sort of tension to Murrayfield. They start sixth and seventh, respectively, with Scotland on 84.40 and Australia on 83.12. A Wallabies win would reverse their order; a Scotland win would widen the gap. Argentina also have an interest in that contest. Los Pumas can rise to seventh if they beat Italy and Scotland defeat Australia, with at least one of those winning margins greater than 15 points. The order below the leading group is far from settled.
For Wales, a first victory over New Zealand since 1953 could bring a move to ninth if Fiji also lose. Italy’s route back into the top 10 requires a win over Argentina and a Wales defeat. Fiji, meanwhile, need their first win against Ireland and an Argentina loss to Italy, with one of the margins greater than 15 points, to climb to eighth. Those conditions explain why a late try can carry significance well beyond the match in which it is scored: the 15-point threshold can affect the size of a rankings exchange.
The movement is not confined to the Nations Championship. In the World Rugby Nations Cup, Portugal could equal their best-ever position of 13th, but only through a very specific combination: beating Samoa by more than 15 points while Georgia lose to Tonga by more than 15. World Rugby puts the resulting gap between Portugal and Georgia at just 0.01 rating points. Four sides — Portugal, Tonga, USA and Spain — could occupy 14th by the end of the weekend, depending on the results and margins.
Further down, Romania have a chance to climb back into the top 20 after falling to 23rd. They need to beat USA and have Canada and Uruguay lose to Hong Kong China and Zimbabwe, respectively. Chile can move back above Spain by winning in Madrid. In the Rugby Europe Trophy, Malta could set a new high of 36th with victory over Sweden, while an upset win for Denmark against Germany could lift them as many as eight places. The headline may belong to the Springboks and All Blacks, but the consequences reach much further down the table.
The useful way to read the weekend is as a set of opportunities, not a forecast. France can force their way into the top three; New Zealand need help to take over at number one; several others need both a result and the right margin elsewhere. By Sunday, the same scorelines will have shaped two different stories: progress in the competitions themselves, and the order of international rugby’s rankings.
Featured image: Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu carries against Italy in Turin on 7 November 2026. Photo: Chris Ricco – Nations Championship/Nations Championship via Getty Images.