Paris stages the clash that could settle who leads each hemisphere, while Cardiff, Dublin, Twickenham and Murrayfield all carry a different kind of pressure. With one round to follow before the finals weekend, every result now moves a position that matters.
The table is close enough in the north that one round can reorder it. France lead on 17 points after four matches, with England and Ireland both on 15 and Scotland on 11. Wales have 10, and Italy, pointless and carrying a points difference of minus 153, are playing for pride and for whatever they can take from a hard schedule. In the south the picture is starker at the top: South Africa and New Zealand are both unbeaten with 20 points, separated only by points difference (plus 140 against plus 73), while Australia, Argentina and Japan are bunched between eight and five points and Fiji have yet to score a point in the table. With the finals weekend at Twickenham on 27, 28 and 29 November, where a team finishes in its table matters as much as whether it wins.
The round opens in Paris on Friday night with the two sides who sit at the head of their respective tables, and it closes at Murrayfield on Sunday. In between come four Saturday fixtures that show the range of the competition: a New Zealand side that has beaten Australia twice and Scotland in the last month visiting Cardiff, England and Ireland chasing France at the top of the north against Japan and Fiji respectively, and Italy facing an Argentina side that has made only one win out of four count. The favourites in most of these matches are clear, so the interest lies in margins and in what each side takes into the final round. Points difference has already separated sides on level points, and it will do so again.
Wales players, in black CYMRU tops and red shorts, link arms during the anthems before the Guinness Six Nations match against Italy in a stadium lit red. Photo: WRU.
The north's leaders meet the south's best
France
South Africa
Friday 13 November, 21:10 CET | Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Paris
This is the match of the round and, on the table, the one with the most riding on it. France top the north on 17 points after beating Fiji 54-17 last Saturday, a result that followed three victories on tour in July, two of them by double figures away from home against Australia and Japan. South Africa arrive with four wins from four and a points difference of plus 140, boosted by a 66-7 win over Italy that was as emphatic as the scoreline suggests. Two sides in form, each at the top of its table, is rare in the pool stage of a competition built on cross-hemisphere fixtures.
The recent history is close and the margins are thin. South Africa won 29-28 in the 2023 World Cup quarter-final in this stadium, and they won 32-17 in Paris in November 2025, a result that said as much about their physicality in the final quarter as about the scoreline. France's only defeat in this competition so far came by two points, 34-32 in Wellington against New Zealand in round one, which tells you the attack is capable of going toe to toe with anyone but can be punished when a few moments go against it. Their 48-46 win over England in March confirms that this is a side that scores freely but also concedes.
South Africa's recent form against the other major southern sides explains why France should be wary. The Springboks are used to matches that turn on fine margins, and that is probably the best guide to how this one will unfold. France want fast ball and space for their half-backs; South Africa want to contest the set piece, kick well and force France to play from deep.
The decisive areas are likely to be the scrum and the contact area, where a South African pack that has been dominant in this competition will test a French front row, and the aerial game, where the Springboks have been consistently strong. If France win the collisions and move the ball quickly they have the finishing to trouble anyone. If the match becomes a territory contest, the visitors' discipline and their bench will count for more. A Friday night kick-off in a full stadium does not make the margin any easier to predict.
ATR verdict: Close and likely decided in the last ten minutes. South Africa's set piece and record in tight matches give them the narrowest of edges: South Africa by three.
Italy search for a first point in the table
Italy
Argentina
Saturday 14 November, 12:40 CET | Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Italy have had a difficult competition. They have played four, lost four and have a points difference of minus 153, and the heaviest of those defeats, 66-7 against South Africa last Saturday, came at home in Turin. They now return to Genoa. In July they lost 27-10 to Japan, 47-17 to New Zealand and 57-10 to Australia, so they have not been in a match going into the final quarter, and the defeats have been of a similar kind each time: a good opening, then a drift as the opposition's power and kicking game wear on them.
Argentina have had their own struggles. They have won one of four, 35-21 over Wales in July, and they come to Genoa after a 42-12 defeat in Dublin by Ireland. Their form outside this competition is not poor, though; they drew 28-28 with Australia in September and lost 27-21 to them a week earlier, and they were beaten only 17-10 by South Africa in August. That tells you the Pumas remain competitive at the top level and that the defeat in Dublin was an exception rather than a sign of collapse.
The last meeting, in November 2024, ended 50-18 to Argentina, but that is of limited use as a guide. What matters now is how the two sides are likely to approach the match. Argentina will want to build on their set piece and their kicking game, and to turn Italy's mistakes into points. Italy's best route is through a quick start, accurate lineout and a defence that holds its shape for the full eighty minutes, and they have rarely managed all three in this competition.
Argentina are the likelier winners, but the margin depends on their discipline and on how Italy respond after a heavy defeat. A home crowd in Genoa should help, and it is an opportunity to show some of the quality that has been visible in patches. Italy cannot afford another match like last Saturday's if they want to avoid finishing at the bottom of the north table.
ATR verdict: Argentina to win with their set piece and kicking, though Italy should be more competitive than in Turin: Argentina by ten.
Wales fresh from a win, New Zealand fresh from a statement of power
Wales
New Zealand
Saturday 14 November, 14:10 GMT | Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Wales come into this match with some momentum, which has been rare for them. Their 28-21 victory over Japan last Saturday took them to 10 points, one behind Scotland on 11, and followed a first-round win away to Fiji, 39-24, and a 33-31 victory over the Barbarians in June. It was also a response to the 43-0 defeat in Cape Town in July and the 35-21 loss to Argentina that followed, results that left questions about the side's ability to compete against the best.
New Zealand are another matter. They have won all four matches in this competition, beating Scotland 43-21 last Saturday, and before that they won both October tests against Australia, 50-19 in Sydney's reverse fixture and 43-21 in the return. They have scored 40 points or more in four of their last five matches, which tells you what the attack can do when it has space.
The recent meeting in Cardiff, in November 2025, ended 52-26 to New Zealand. That scoreline is a useful reminder of what happens when Wales are drawn into a loose match. The best chance for the home side is to slow the ball, keep the contest in the forwards and make New Zealand earn every point. A pack that played well against Japan will need to repeat that, and the half-backs will need to manage territory so that the visitors cannot attack off turnover ball.
New Zealand's priority is simpler: keep winning, and protect the points difference that is keeping them level with South Africa at the top of the south table. A big win would put pressure on the Springboks in Paris and sets up the final round well. Wales will be competitive for an hour, and the question is whether they can stay in it after that.
ATR verdict: Wales will compete in the first half, but New Zealand's depth and finishing should tell: New Zealand by 18.
England look to protect their place in the chasing group
England
Japan
Saturday 14 November, 16:40 GMT | Allianz Stadium, London (Twickenham)
England sit second in the north on 15 points, level with Ireland and two behind France, after a 45-22 win over Australia last Sunday. That result was important both for the points and for the points difference, which at plus 71 is the second best in the table and could decide the order if sides finish level. They have won three of four, with the only defeat a 45-21 loss to South Africa in the first round, and they have scored heavily elsewhere, including 73-8 away to Fiji and 31-24 in Argentina.
Japan have had a more difficult time. They won the Pacific Nations Cup final against Fiji 20-15 in September, but lost to Fiji 28-34 in October and lost 28-21 in Cardiff last Saturday. They have one win in four in this competition and a negative points difference, but their attack has produced points in all of their recent matches, including 63-14 against the USA and 57-12 against Canada, so a tight defensive effort will be required.
England have won each of their last three meetings with Japan, 59-14 in 2024, 52-17 in June 2024 and 34-12 at the 2023 World Cup, and nothing in the current form suggests that this will be different. The tactical question is whether Japan can use their speed in the wide channels to disrupt England's defence. The visitors' best chance is to keep the ball in hand and play at tempo, avoiding the kicking contest in which England's lineout and aerial game are strongest.
England should control the match through their forwards and their kicking game, and the interest will be in how many points they can take. With only two points separating the leading three sides, England's points difference is a resource they will want to build before the final round.
ATR verdict: England should be comfortable winners, and a bonus-point win is the realistic expectation: England by 25.
Ireland look to turn form into points difference
Ireland
Fiji
Saturday 14 November, 20:10 GMT | Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Ireland are third in the north on 15 points with a points difference of plus 29, well behind England's plus 71, and that is the number that this match is most likely to affect. They beat Argentina 42-12 last Saturday, a result that followed a 40-21 defeat in New Zealand in July, and wins over Japan (36-20) and Australia (33-31) before that. They have scored a lot of points when they have been allowed to play, and the question for this match is how many they can add against Fiji.
Fiji have had a difficult competition. They have lost all four matches, with a points difference of minus 133, including 54-17 against France last Saturday and 33-17 against Scotland in July. Their record in the Pacific Nations Cup, where they reached the final, and their 34-28 win over Japan in October show that they remain dangerous in open play, and Ireland have been beaten before when they have allowed them to play that way.
In November 2024 Ireland won 52-17 at this ground, and nothing has suggested that the gap has narrowed. The route to a big win is clear: control the set piece, win the contact area and avoid the loose kicks that give Fiji a chance to counter. Fiji's best chance is to unsettle the Irish line-out and to make the match as loose as possible.
Ireland are overwhelming favourites and will be thinking about the standings as much as the result. The margin matters because, with England on the same points and ahead on difference, a convincing win keeps them in touch with France and the top of the table going into the last round.
ATR verdict: Ireland to win comfortably and earn a bonus point, Fiji scoring late tries: Ireland by 30.
Scotland and Australia both need a response
Scotland
Australia
Sunday 15 November, 15:10 GMT | Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Both sides come into this match after a heavy defeat. Scotland lost 43-21 to New Zealand last Saturday and sit fourth in the north with 11 points and a points difference of minus 11, while Australia lost 45-22 to England the following day and have eight points in the south. For each, the match offers a chance to correct course before the final round and to protect a position in the table that could matter at the finals weekend.
Scotland's form in this competition has been uneven. They beat Argentina 47-38 in the first round and Fiji 33-17 in July, but lost 42-28 to South Africa in between, and the defeat by Ireland in March, 43-21, shows that they have struggled when the match is played at a high tempo against a well-organised side. At home they should be better, and they beat Australia 27-13 at Murrayfield in November 2024.
Australia have been inconsistent. They beat South Africa 42-38 on 27 September and drew 28-28 with Argentina, but lost twice to New Zealand in October, 50-19 and 43-21, and then to England. They have a win in this competition, and the pattern is that they can score against anyone but are vulnerable when the opposition control territory and the breakdown.
That suggests how the match will be played. Scotland want quick ball and a high-tempo game that uses their backs, while Australia need to slow the breakdown and use their kicking game to turn the match into a contest of field position. The match is likely to be decided by discipline and by which side is more accurate in the final quarter.
Murrayfield on a Sunday afternoon should help the home side, but the margin between the two is small and neither has shown consistency this autumn.
ATR verdict: Home advantage and the recent head-to-head should be enough in a close match: Scotland by five.
Standings
| # | Team | PL | W | L | D | PD | BP | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 5 | 17 | W W W L |
| 2 |  England | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 3 | 15 | W W W L |
| 3 |  Ireland | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 15 | W L W W |
| 4 |  Scotland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -11 | 3 | 11 | L W L W |
| 5 |  Wales | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -35 | 2 | 10 | W L L W |
| 6 |  Italy | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -153 | 0 | 00 | L L L L |
| # | Team | PL | W | L | D | PD | BP | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Africa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 4 | 20 | W W W W |
| 2 |  New Zealand | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 4 | 20 | W W W W |
| 3 |  Australia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 08 | L W L L |
| 4 |  Argentina | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -32 | 3 | 07 | L L W L |
| 5 |  Japan | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -33 | 1 | 05 | L L L W |
| 6 |  Fiji | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -133 | 0 | 00 | L L L L |
A weekend that sets the finals picture
The round's most important match comes first. If France or South Africa win in Paris, they will take a clear step towards the top place in their table, and the loser will have to rely on points difference and the final round. England and Ireland, level on 15, are both expected to take bonus points on Saturday, and the gap between them and the leaders will probably depend on the margins they can manage against Japan and Fiji. Scotland and Wales, with 11 and 10 points, can only improve their positions through results and cannot hope to catch the leaders in a single round.
In the south the question is whether New Zealand can match South Africa's result or even overtake them on points difference. Australia and Argentina are still in contention for third and fourth places, which could affect the pairings at Twickenham on 27, 28 and 29 November. Whatever happens, the weekend will shape the final round and the finals, and the margins of victory in the Saturday matches could be as important as the results.