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The champions remain our title pick, but the Stormers’ recruitment, the Bulls’ unfinished business and a crowded play-off race make this far more than a one-team story.
The United Rugby Championship returns on Friday 25 September, with Leinster chasing a third successive title. Winning back-to-back championships has established the standard; the challenge for everyone else is finding a way to beat them when it matters most. United Rugby Championship
Our view is that this season will be shaped by how effectively clubs manage change. New signings can improve a squad on paper, but building combinations, handling international absences and collecting points away from home will determine who reaches the knockouts in a position to challenge.
The Stormers have made the strongest statement through recruitment. Siya Kolisi, Cheslin Kolbe and Wilco Louw return to a squad already containing Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Evan Roos. That gives them options to strengthen the scrum, compete around the breakdown and threaten defences in several different ways. DHL Stormers
The question is whether those qualities become a reliable game rather than a collection of brilliant moments. For ATR, they are the most convincing alternative to Leinster.
The Bulls, meanwhile, need to turn familiarity with finals into a trophy. Four runners-up finishes demonstrate their ability to reach the decisive match, but also explain why another strong regular season will not satisfy expectations. Their campaign should be judged on whether they develop the control and adaptability to finish the job. United Rugby Championship
Glasgow Warriors deserve equal attention after topping last season’s regular-season table. However, departures including Huw Jones, Jack Dempsey and Adam Hastings create a significant adjustment. Jamie Ritchie’s arrival adds experience, but maintaining their attacking effectiveness while establishing new combinations will be crucial. United Rugby Championship
Munster finished fifth last season, ahead of Cardiff, the Lions and Connacht. For that group, the challenge is not simply reaching the top eight again—it is improving their position and giving themselves a more favourable knockout route. United Rugby Championship
Munster should be aiming to put sustained pressure on the leading four. Cardiff and the Lions need to show that qualification can become an expectation rather than a standout achievement.
Connacht are our pick to make a noticeable step forward. The arrivals of Ciarán Frawley and Will Connors offer an opportunity to strengthen both decision-making and the work around the contact area. Frawley’s influence will be particularly interesting: greater responsibility could benefit both the player and Connacht’s attacking direction. United Rugby Championship
The Sharks, Ulster and Edinburgh missed last season’s play-offs, leaving them with a clear benchmark for improvement. Our test for all three is consistency: can they build a dependable game that survives changes in selection and difficult afternoons, rather than relying on their best performances to recover lost ground? United Rugby Championship
Benetton must adjust after losing players including Tommaso Menoncello and Thomas Gallo, while Ospreys face their own transition following the departures of Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake. Those changes make the speed at which new combinations settle especially important. United Rugby Championship
For Scarlets, Dragons and Zebre Parma, our benchmark is sustained competitiveness. Reliable possession, better exits and fewer costly periods without the ball would provide a stronger foundation than occasional attacking highlights. Staying close enough to win difficult matches must come before ambitious predictions about the table.
Leinster remain our title pick, with the Stormers the strongest challenger and Connacht our team to watch for upward movement.
The Bulls and Glasgow belong firmly in the championship conversation, while the battle beneath them offers plenty of room for reputations to change.
Recruitment has created the possibilities. What matters now is which teams turn them into performances they can repeat when the pressure rises.