The real show starts now. History tells us that the team that tops the league URC rarely lifts the crown. Rather, the team that completes the post-Six Nations block of fixtures with the most momentum is the one who takes the title.
Glasgow won it from 4th last season, Munster won it from 7th, even going back to the Scarlets in 2017 who were the first ever team to win an away semi-final - against Leinster whilst down to 14 men, no less. In this game it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.
This does beg the question of whether an 8 team play-off system is really ‘sporting’ but in the mean time the excellently marketed ‘race for eight’ in the URC is as unpredictable as it is nail-niting. 4th down to 14th covered by just 7 points with 5 games to play and no-one has an easy run in; there’s simply no such thing in this league.
Leinster have finally picked up a defeat despite sending a stronger than expected team down to South Africa. Their season so far has had a ‘not messing about’ air to it but an overtime penalty by Bulls centre David Kriel earned them their first blemish of the campaign. There has been some disquiet in Pretoria around the position of coach Jake White, but in the context of the injuries they have, to still be in the hunt for a home semi final is some achievement.
The ‘if-you-know-you-know’ rivalry of the league did not disappoint as Glasgow fought back against Munster to keep their place in the top two. Munster traditionally come alive at this time of year but this team feels different, shod of confidence and with a line-out and maul that is simply not champion standard (statistically the worst, in fact). They’re now ten points off top four.
Throwing constant spanners in the works for all play-off hopefuls, Zebre - the former whipping boys who looked set to go extinct just a few weeks ago - are having their best ever season. If they had held on against the Sharks down in Durban on Saturday it could have been the greatest URC result of all time. Instead they must be content with two losing bonus points to go with their three wins in the three preceding games.
Sharks meanwhile have somehow managed to give themselves breathing room in the home quarter final spots despite playing some terrible rugby - their underlying stats are deeply concerning. Once again they can thank a little known player called Siya Kolisi, whose shift to number 8 has seen him hit incredible try scoring form: five in his last three games. If any squad in the league knows how to win it’s these men, and they have miraculously won each of the last three trophies available to them.
Finally, don’t overlook the Ospreys. Their change of coach has resulted in a complete reinvention of the side as they are now scoring tries for fun. They are hitting form at the perfect time, playing with confidence and are getting key players back from injury. A semi-final is very possible for this team. Very possible.