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Scotland travel to Dublin to face Ireland in Round 5 of the Guinness Men’s Six Nations knowing that a bonus win would give them their best finish in the Championship, and potentially their first title since the tournament grew to six in 2000.
They start the day in second place, level with France on 16 points, but with a lesser points difference of 79 to 21. France’s six tries at Murrayfield, with four coming in a frantic final quarter of an hour, meant Gregor Townsend’s team let the chance slip to have their destiny in their hands, and must rely on England to do them a favour.
Moreover, anything that Scotland take from the Aviva Stadium will be well earned. Scotland have not beaten Ireland since 2017, and Townsend has tasted defeat every time the sides have met including at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups.
Still, runs come to an end and shocks still happen, just ask France.
Here’s how ATR thinks Scotland could win…
Keep The Faith
Since their defeat to Italy, Scotland have played some fantastic rugby, with two performances for the ages against England and France either side of a dig in and grind victory over Wales.
History tells us that while the match in Dublin is more likely to be akin to the win in Cardiff, rather than the triumphs at Murrayfield, the trick, as Scotland found out at the Principality Stadium, is to approach the fates in the same way and to continue playing the rugby that has brought them so much success.
Ireland will bring a different approach to everyone else. You can picture the relish that Tadhg Beirne, Joe McCarthy, Jack Conan and Josh van der Flier will take in trying to disrupt the Scotland rucks in a way that France couldn’t.
Townsend’s men have repaid his faith in spades and done so in a disciplined manner, as their four penalties against France showed. They have also remained disciplined in their belief in their play. It has worked so far, time to show it can work in the hottest of atmospheres.
Points Win Prizes
That being said, the challenge they will face at the Aviva Stadium is far tougher than the one they faced at the Principality. Ireland’s form has shadowed Scotland’s this Championship; a glorious win over England, followed by an unconvincing win over Wales. Does that mean Scotland will be Ireland’s France?
While Scotland have enjoyed plenty of success chasing five or seven points, there will be times in Dublin when they will be wise to take the three to keep the scoreboard ticking and wait for their chances to cut lose.
The lineout has been something of a lottery this Championship and with first-choice second rows Scott Cummings and Gregor Brown out, you can picture the glee McCarthy, Beirne and Conan will feel when the chance to disrupt one comes their way. Scotland would be best advised to hit them with a scrum. Theirs has been good, and Ireland’s has been a real millstone. On the evidence so far, that is likely to yield better results.
Have A Jamisons
With Andy Farrell’s toing and froing between Sam Prendergast and Jack Crowley, much of the creative burden has fallen on Jamison Gibson-Park. As such, when the scrumhalf plays well, the team play well.
It was clear when they beat England at Allianz Stadium. His quick tapped penalty allowed him to squeeze over for the first try, and his ability to inject pace and increase the speed of play has been one of Ireland’s key arms under Farrell.
How then, do Scotland stop him? There is no reason to think they can’t after all they got to Antoine Dupontso much that he ended flinging a wild pass forward inside his own in-goal area. To do that Scotland need to repeat their tackling performance from their match versus France – 124 won – and stop his supply. Over to you, Rory Darge.
Tinkering With The Engine
Townsend’s only selection call of note was deciding which second rows to call on to replace Scott Cummings and Gregor Brown in the engine room.
In the end he opted for Grant Gilchrist and Max Williamson. Both have had mixed Championship performances up to now. Gilchrist started against Scotland but has begun on the bench since then. It was Williamson who Italy held up in the final play in Rome to end Scotland’s chances, and he struggled against Wales in Cardiff to the extent that he was hooked on 34 minutes.
However, an abiding theme of Townsend’s coaching this Championship is knowing when to show faith in his players, and when to bring them in from the cold. It worked after the Round 1 loss, and similarly for Blair Kinghorn’s return at fullback after Tom Jordan got the nod early on. Could Williamson be the next to benefit?
Then there is Alex Craig on the bench, who will be champing at the bit to win his fifth cap. At 28, he has taken a circuitous route that featured Gloucester and the Scarlets, but he is making his presence felt at Glasgow Warriors and helped them to memorable victories over Toulouse and Saracens in the Investec Champions Cup.
The only other change comes at tighthead prop where Zander Fagerson swaps roles with D’Arcy Rae. As well as Rae played against France, Fagerson is Townsend’s favoured number three and his selection is a sign that he wants to go after a struggling Irish scrum from the start.
